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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 6/28/23

July Wheat - Steady

Dec Corn - 3 to 4 Higher

Nov Beans - 3 to 4 Lower

We are going to remain very basic today - energy - everything is energy; life, nature, the stars, the seasons, markets, etc. Energy can flow in different directions. The markets build up the most energy when most of the participants are wrong.

More of the same today in the grains, only more extreme. The strong handed money (whales, merchants) are attacking when producers are most vulnerable. They are also attacking (by blowing through all support levels) the small speculators and some large speculators when the bullish stars seemed to be aligned.

I have news for you - they are still aligned. The strong hands are trying to deceive you into believing the grain world is over - that the corn belt will receive bumper crop rains just in the nick of time - that the weather trend will reverse on a dime. Don't believe them or what you think you're seeing on the charts.

This correction is actually building more bullish energy because it's going so deep.

Any energetic trend that has been in motion for a while has greater odds of remaining in the same directional motion, than not. The dryness/drought trend is firmly in place for over 2 months now. It will tend to remain in this trend. What will cause it to reverse course now or in a week?

Plus, as life or plants get bigger they require more energy (water, sun, food) to sustain them and grow to potential. Therefore, there is much more risk to production, as the season ticks on.

The actual thing that has to prove itself is adequate rain, not a forecast. Because at this point, some damage is being done in parts of the belt that is not reversible. Is a child that is malnourished to age 6 going to be as happy and healthy at age 18 as one who grew in great environs the entire time? No. The growing season is 30% gone plus or minus 10%. (I know it's not linear).

I have learned another thing about what's affecting the weather - Canadian wildfire smoke. The smoke decreases a clouds ability to form rain drops: This is from North Dakota gov -

"When smoke particles are introduced into the atmosphere in high enough concentrations, the air contains many small droplets that are less likely to collide and grow into large droplets, reducing precipitation."

The smoke is heavy in most of the central and eastern corn belt: This is from

What states are affected by Canada smoke?

"As smoke crosses into the US, air quality alerts have been issued for the entire states of Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Delaware and Maryland as well are parts of Kansas, Missouri, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, Virginia and North Carolina, the National Weather Service said"

And finally from F.D.R's first inauguration speech from Wikipedia:

So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is...fear itself — nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.

I believe Roger will soon talk about the jet stream forecast going out about 10 days and how this should affect corn belt weather.

Now back to the grain charts. December corn partially filled the gap from June 12th today. I believe the selling is complete or very close, today. This gap is no longer a potential anchor pulling prices down - finished business (probably be another gap higher up to measure from) - the gap filling will also make the uptrend more orderly and probably last longer. Lance was correct about the gap fill.

We are only going to look at the 2012 and December '23 charts today. The patterns are not exactly the same of course, but there are some basic swing high and low similarities. In '12 a rally began on May 11th and ran for 70+ cents. This rally was erased into Memorial day.

Then, corn traded to a high on 6/19/12 - Then a low on 6/25. This year's December corn marked a high on 6/21. Today is 6/28. This year, corn rallied from 5/18 and marked a low on 6/5. Only focus on the high to low patterns on both charts, while recognizing the dates.

The July and December (continuation) from 2012 is first.


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