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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 6/21/23

July Wheat - Steady to 1 Lower

Dec Corn - Steady

Nov Beans - 1 to 2 Lower

Today is the first day of summer - the longest daylight of the year. I remember Alan Bonifas pointed to this day - that the grains would go higher from this juncture. Well, corn and soybeans have been rallying fairly stoutly since May 18th and June 8th.

Therefore, the next couple of days could mark an acceleration in the grains - a jumping off point. Believe me, I am saying it also. "How can the grains accelerate even more?" They can do just about anything and I'd have to say the odds are better for these markets to become even steeper than anything else, like turning down.

The continuation (July) corn chart printed a big up day today, with a one quarter cent (1 tick) gap on the opening last night. This is a measuring gap that measures roughly half, meaning that the rally is about half over, at a minimum.

July Corn rallied 100 cents from the low on May 18th until yesterday. This indicates that corn will rally about 100 more cents higher, at a minimum. This gives us 747 on the continuation chart (July) and 727 factored for the December Corn contract.

This measuring gap doesn't limit the upside. Rather, it gives us a minimum concrete target to look for. Any one of the grains could mark more gaps as time ticks on. If this occurs, upside potential would increase.

By the way, today's close on July chart met the inverted head & shoulders target of 670. Please spend some time looking at the notes on the chart. There is a higher price possibility written near the top of the chart.

The soybean weekly chart will be presented below. It shows the possibility in corn and beans that we have begun wave 3 up and that the first impulse leg terminated in May of 2021. The 5 legs since then could be an A-B-C-D-E triangle correction.

Therefore, if this is so, we have to use the length of the 2021 rally for a projection on the current rally, which was 476 cents added to the recent low of 547 - and honestly it makes sense regarding Elliot wave theory because otherwise the 2022 rally (if it was a 3rd wave up would be shorter than the 2021 rally - this goes against the rules, so that leg was most likely a corrective B leg.

Here is the corn continuation chart.

Check out the Weekly Soybean chart beginning with the 2021 rally to the left, an A-B-C-D-E corrective wave after that, then a possible current up leg starting now which would have a minimum upside target of 2122. This may seem lofty, but we have to keep this possibility in our back pocket.

Soybean meal has been leading the oilseed complex for the last 3 trading days. Will meal mark new chart highs? We don't know yet. What we do know, is that if meal leads over bean oil, the soybean rally will be more powerful. Here is the meal continuation chart with 2 retracement up levels marked.

The November Bean chart is nearing the old highs from February and March. This rally is 14 trading days and 248 cents long. Notice the lines (congestion area) that price has been fighting through the last 3 days.

It is possible that this chart is at a jumping off point - the price action, gap in corn, date. It is also possible a correction could occur from here. At any other time, a correction would be the most likely scenario, but we are not at any other time. We'll have to see tonight.

I have had some questions about the current Elliot wave/leg count during this rally. Again, at virtually any other time we would have a big wave 2 correction complete or underway. However, in both corn and beans, we are experiencing 1 long/extended impulse up number 1.

Within number 1, I have counted up to wave 11 so far (up and down) in August soybeans. Impulse legs can have 5, 9, 13, or 17 smaller waves within it. The 1973 July bean rally exceeded 17 waves. See if you can count the legs.

Wheat has definitely come to the rally party, as it has moved up through some stiff resistance. Check out the current continuation wheat chart - the next upside target is 8 bucks.


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