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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 6/15/23

July Wheat - 1 to 2 Lower

July Corn - Steady to 1 Lower

July Beans - 7 to 8 Lower

Nov Beans - 2 Lower

From yesterday's December Corn comments:

"December Corn is (last 3 days) consolidating/rotating around last July '22 swing lows and building energy for a rally up towards 575 first, then the target at 605." As expected, time is speeding up and 575 was the high tick in Dec corn today.

I was giving the market today and tomorrow to reach this target, but what do I know. We better figure then that the speed is/is going to be twice as fast as I anticipated. I also knew we were due for a range expansion day, here are corn comments from Tuesday: "...indicates it's taking care of the building energy business quickly and that a more extended run higher is close at hand."

So here we go. What's next? Today was a breakout/acceleration from the bottom formation in Dec Corn. Today's information tells us almost without a doubt that we are in a strong uptrend and that it will take a greater force moving forward than earlier in the week to stop it - gaining momentum.

I expect a pullback/backfill of some sort for tonight and tomorrow for corn and soybeans - ahead of a 3 day weekend during a weather related summer rally. 560 which is Tuesday's high in Dec corn should be an opportunity for longs, as well as 1335 to 1340 in August Soybeans.

Because the momentum is increasing, there is greater risk of a gap up than down on Monday night. The red arrow (left) is pointing to the bump to the left which affected today's high in December Corn. Because of this and some heavy volume near the high, my confidence for some sort of pullback is high.

The red down arrow is pointing to today's resistance/target. Here is today's corn chart.

Our August Soybean target of 1388 fell short because of resistance in November beans. If beans in fact do correct tomorrow, as expected, this will tell us who's in charge - new crop.

While 1335 in Aug and 1250 in the November is support in soybeans, I doubt they can sell down that much. My guess is 1270 to 1260 in Novie, but we will have to see tomorrow.

Today also marks wave 5 or 9 impulse legs in the Elliot wave count. This usually implies the market is due for a larger correction in time, price, or both. This is not a usual market and up impulses can keep extending themselves if need be - to satisfy supply/demand.

If we begin counting at point 2 on the Novie bean chart, however, our rally is 5 days old and corrections are typically 20% or 25% in strong bull markets. Tomorrow is 1 day or 20% of 5 days. Most of the mark up in price occurred after point 2 - you will see this. Check out the new crop beans daily chart.

The continuation soybean oil chart also had a range expansion/breakout like day. Roger nailed this on the head with bean oil leading. Meal is flat to down. Soyoil first broke higher from the down channel last Friday, 4 bars ago.

Monday it tested the top trend line and Tuesday it resumed the uptrend impulse, with today being the expansion. Here is the daily Soybean oil continuation chart.

August crude oil remains rangebound between 67 and 73.


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