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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 6/14/23

July Wheat - Steady to 1 Lower


July Corn - Steady


July Beans - Steady to 1 Higher


Today we are going to continue following the Elliot wave lesson - the count occurring in the continuation (July) wheat chart. This is an overview of Elliot Wave Theory from Investopedia:


KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • The Elliott Wave theory is a technical analysis of price patterns related to changes in investor sentiment and psychology.

  • The theory identifies impulse waves that establish a pattern and corrective waves that oppose the larger trend.

  • Each set of waves is within another set of waves that adhere to the same impulse or corrective pattern, described as a fractal approach to investing.

Here is the Investopedia website if you're interested in more detail:


There is a new word in the key takeaways up above: Fractal. I honestly don't remember if I've mentioned this word - maybe once? The cover image has fractal qualities - the blue-like eroded river. Well, what is the definition of a fractal?


This description is from an online dictionary:

MATHEMATICS

noun

  1. a curve or geometric figure, each part of which has the same statistical character as the whole. Fractals are useful in modeling structures (such as eroded coastlines or snowflakes) in which similar patterns recur at progressively smaller scales, and in describing partly random or chaotic phenomena such as crystal growth, fluid turbulence, and galaxy formation.

I believe July Wheat has begun or is near the beginning the next impulse up which is Big3. We are either finished with Big2 (corrective) and embarking on Big3, or still fleshing out Big2 (corrective). You will remember the 4 hour wheat chart.


The December Corn chart is the same as the September chart, with a few details that are different. Remember the break-away gap on Sunday night which began directly on the neckline?


December Corn is (last 3 days) consolidating/rotating around last July '22 swing lows and building energy for a rally up towards 575 first, then the target at 605. We will take stock again after this.


The 575 level is the big downtrend line or top part of the triangle, so this spot will provide at least some resistance. The price action near 575 will give us some clues about the strength of corn. Check out today's new crop corn chart, looking back a year and one third.


This is a quick look at the daily continuation soybean chart again. I want you to notice where and how yesterday's resistance and small correction occurred. Price reversed within 5 ticks of the subtle swing high to the left where the red arrow is pointing downwards at 1416.75.


The next thrust higher should terminate around the next higher swing high to the left labeled B, which is 1446.75. This is 60 cents up from today's close, give or take. To determine how this affects the other soybean contract month, simply add 60 cents to today's close.


Here is the updated continuation bean chart.


US Dollar/Eurocurrency Update:

The Euro is breaking out to the upside, therefore the US Dollar is accelerating down. Check out the daily Eurocurrency chart:


The September US Dollar appears to be in a more established downtrend.


These 2 currency charts should provide some tail winds for the grains - just another piece to the macroeconomic picture. This data of course supports what we believe is happening on the grain charts.





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