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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 6/13/23

July Wheat - 3 to 4 Higher

July Corn - 1 to 2 Lower

July Beans - 3 to 5 Lower

As anticipated, the soybean complex lead today, with the July contract closing up +26.25, August up +28.50, and Novie up +30.00. To expound on the horse race analogy, this is how it will go - with soybeans leading some days and corn leading other days, and the different contract months within each grain, jockeying for position on any given day.

I have always heard that the front month leads in a bull market, but with new crop supply beginning to be threatened, November Soybeans and December Corn will also be strong.

The best answer I have is that the old crop/new crop spreads will probably not widen much more and they may even retract somewhat. All the contracts will have nearly equal up pressure to mark price higher.

As you will see on the August Bean chart, today's high was close to testing a resistance line (red) at 1340. Within this current upleg I count 7 smaller waves so far, 8 with the afternoon pullback.

Beans should, therefore mark a 9 wave leg before a longer than intraday backfill occurs. I anticipate that being around 1388 - the first blue line above. After that, the August beans should roughly follow the path marked with the other blue lines, simulating price action.

Check out August Beans and you should see what I am saying.

Here is the daily November bean chart for reference. Different prices and resistance levels. The daily chart provides another way to look at this impulse. We may have marked 1-2-3 so far, with 4 being a bigger backfill than what I saw on the August chart.

They will both trade together, we simply don't know yet if beans will have a bigger pullback from here. By tomorrow early session, that issue should be resolved. Take a look at the November daily and you will see what I mean by a bigger pullback. Notice the 1-2-3-4 up impulse.

If the November chart proves to be more correct, August beans will correct down near 1300 instead of today's low, before the 5th wave in this up impulse.

We are going to keep it super simple with September corn and look at the daily chart with the blue lines representing likely backfill levels. The backbone of chart analysis is that support and resistance are created from old highs and old lows on the left side of the chart and the blue upsloping lines painted across the highs.

The rule of thumb is that the corrections will occur somewhere between these 2 points - 1. Old swing high 2. line across those highs. Today was a good breakout of the neckline on September Corn. The fact that prices kind of just hung out around the neckline indicates it's taking care of the building energy business quickly and that a more extended run higher is close at hand. Check out Sep Corn daily.

Here is the July Corn 8 hour chart so you can see today's test of the neckline more clearly - the red arrow is pointing to today's bar.

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