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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 6/12/23

July Wheat - 1 to 2 Lower


July Corn - Steady to 1 Lower


July Beans - 1 to 3 Lower


One reason that the July over September and December corn spreads were negative today is some of the fund longs and index funds are beginning to roll their long positions from the July contract to the September and December contracts.


Same thing in the soybean market - funds are rolling from the July contract to the August, September and November contracts. Chart technicians cannot ignore the apparent fact that we are in a bona-fide weather market - it can give added confidence to chart clues!


September and December Corn both marked upside breakaway gaps on today's bar. The definition of a breakaway gap is a leap up in price from a bottom formation and above the previous day's close and high.


A breakaway gap tells us observers that this market is in a hurry to mark up prices higher. It adds confidence to our previous findings that a bottom was in place in corn and that an uptrend was starting. Now, we know it's serious and the market is not going to take it's time - market time will speed up.


The July Corn contract will keep pace, but there will be pushing and pulling among the different contracts as money tries to find a home - sort of like a horse race - they will all arrive at the finish, where ever that is.


The next targets higher in December Corn are 605 then 637, with the latter number near the high marked last October 14th - this high is labeled the B - wave. Then we will see what this chart tells us then. Old resistance at 548.5 now becomes support. Check out the gap on December Corn chart.


I made a typo in last weekends July corn comments. Specifically the next target higher - the gap close is 645, not 654.


July Wheat continued it's march higher on Friday and today, it's not quite as in a hurry as corn and beans, however - for now. The pattern in wheat is a stairstepping up one. Very assured but not urgent like corn. 625-624 is wheat support.


The July Wheat chart is a continuation of our Elliot Wave lesson. Big 3 is beginning and it's going to be constructed with a smaller iteration of 1-2-3-4-5. Here is today's July Wheat.


Today, we are taking a look at the August Soybean chart. It made a small correction today. Support comes in near today's low of 1287.75. There are 3 price targets higher on the chart - a red line and 2 blue lines above that.


The first target is 1339.5, and is an old swing low to the left. Then the blue line targets are somewhat variable because of their upsloping nature. The blue line targets are based on old highs to the left. You can see those prices on the chart here.


Weather markets, which also have strong inverses as corn and beans currently do, are a bit difficult to juggle chart wise, with all the different prices and targets. I will do my best to keeps tabs on them and report on them all. As always, feel free to ask questions or tell me what you want to hear about down at the bottom or email Roger.


Even though the bulk of the fund money rolls to December corn and November Beans, some of it likes to play in the summer months because those contracts will likely lead most of the way.














1 Yorum


I'm long july corn. Do you think I Should roll them to September or skip September and go to December? Or would you wait till closer to first notice day?

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