July Wheat -3 to 5 Higher
July Corn - 4 to 6 Higher
Dec Corn - Steady
July Soybeans - Steady
The grains got routed today. The 1723 support in July Soybeans was crushed and there was a vacuum below which was created by the big up day last Thurs. (please refer to the bean chart below). They sold it to 1673.75. Trendline support came in about 1688 - it closed within 2-3 cents of this trendline near 1686-1687 (up 12 cents from the low). Where a market closes and where the volume is - is more important when looking at price support or resistance.
Support for July Soybeans is a trendline going back to May 12. - technical analysis is not an exact science or math. Sometimes it overshoots an important area to capitulate the weaker longs (smaller specs) force them to liquidate.
Also, there was maximum intraday volume on the first low it made today near 1689. If you'll remember, this intraday volume peak indicates very strong fund buying defending a particular price level. IT is no accident this fund buying occurred at the trendline support. This is by design - the funds in general are not giving up their long position for the season yet in my view. I'm worried if July Soybeans trades below 1640
This time of year time speeds up and volatility picks up in the grains, so it's not unusual to see a huge up day and a huge down day within a 3 day trading span.
Memorial Day marks a new season for the Grain markets as far as traders and the charts because time and price will speed up as it always does in the summer months. It's as though The sun angle also stimulates the charts like it does with the plant.
Remember we are trading in a 180 cent range for 3 months. The Bull/bear fight has enormous energy built up that's in the beginning stages of expression. Today remained in the upper half of that range.
The selloff went all the way down to last Thursday's low - which was the beginning of the huge fund buying day. You will get a good idea what I'm talking about on the 30 minute chart below. Note the red arrow on today's price point and below at the volume bar. Also see the bumps (backfill or consolidation) labeled with the red arrow.
Pullback and correction areas (bumps) in both an uptrend and down is what creates support and resistance on a chart. Rule of thumb - straight up/ straight down. bumpy up/bumpy down and vice versa.
July Corn fell to it's trendline across lows on the 60 min chart - it is also testing last Wed low. I am not concerned about July Corn unless we trade below 735. July Wheat tested a long term uptrend line going back to March 29. Is it searching for an early harvest low?
July Crude Oil Update: from Saturday's comments. "July Crude Oil next target is still 119.65." It almost traded to 120 before selling off some. Support comes in around 112.50, then I expect a lower high.
The Gasoline and Heating Oil charts seem toppy for the time being on the daily charts - Their weekly/monthly chart recently exceeded the 2008 high by small margins - This could function as a double top on the long term charts.