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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 4/3/23

May Wheat - 2 to 3 Higher

May Corn - Steady to 1 Lower

May Beans - 2 to 3 Lower

I have removed the question marks from the inverted head & shoulders pattern on the 2 hour wheat because this formation seems to fit best with the the price action. The 680 support level held nicely on Friday and today wheat marked a higher low of 691.50.

691 should hold support now, with 680 a less likely scenario - I am mentioning 680 again just to be safe. Resistance is now 711 and 724 above that. Here is today's May Wheat chart.

The May Corn contract rallied to within 1.5 pennies of the inverted head & shoulders price target of 670 today. After that, corn backed off about 11 cents and found temporary support on the old 655.50 highs. Please notice that I have removed some of the lower red lines from the chart because they should no longer be in play.

Support for tomorrow is 655.50, then 649 and resistance is 670 then 682. Check out today's May Corn chart.

May Soybeans made an intraday gap up on last nights open and the gap stayed open. An intraday gap is where the open is above the previous close and price never sells to close that gap. These are marked with red arrows on the chart.

This gap up gives us a nearterm price objective of 1619. By nearterm I mean 4 to 7 trading days. The previous up leg was 109 cents and took 6 days, so this same time frame will influence the duration of the next move to the 1619 target. 1619 is derived by adding 109 to last night's open/low. After 1619 is achieved, beans should pullback to between 1580 and 1555, offering another long entry

The bean chart still has a bunch of bumps on the left all the way up to 1538 - this will be the first resistance and support is now 1511, 1 cent up from the gap up. Below is the updated 2 hour May Bean chart. I will scale/zoom out on tomorrow's report.

May Crude Oil received a bullish surprise over the weekend, jumped over the 78 resistance, and rallied all the way up to the next resistance at 81.30, then settled near 80.58 up +4.91. Today's action should complete the 3rd wave up which is 14.50 in length. 14.50 is double the first up leg of 7.25.

Old resistance at 78 now becomes support and I expect the gap to stay open. The first leg of the gap is 11.4 in length. If crude backfills to 78, the next up target will be 78 + 11.4 which equals 89.40 for the next rally.

However, if Crude oil is too strong over the next few days, it will rally past the 89.40 projection and trade straight to 93.50, which is the next resistance. 78 plus 14.5 (length of leg) equals 92.5 which is in the ballpark of the upper target. We are looking at the 8 hour chart today, covering more real estate, so you will see what I'm talking about.

Like so many other US assets and markets, the June S&P has broken out to the upside and is in a bonafide rally. It took a few weeks to base out making an inverted head & shoulders and it's headed up to 4304. You'll see on the chart that the base was 238 points wide. You add 238 to the breakout level to get 4304. This area is near the swing high of last August 16th. Check out the chart.


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