Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 4/19/23

May Wheat - 2 to 3 Higher

May Corn - Steady

May Beans - Steady to 1 Higher

I want to reiterate and try to explain more clearly the idea of Elliot Wave Theory when describing market behavior. The most important thing to understand is the actual counting detail is not as important as what the counting reveals.

Corrective market action comes in 3's or a series of 3's, whereas the impulses (main trends) expresses in 5, 9, 13 waves or more. 3 waves has 2 legs going the same direction connected by a leg going the opposite direction.

5 waves has 3 legs running in the same direction connected by 2 legs going in the other direction. To make it a more basic explanation, you can assume the impulses are up and the corrections are down.

To break it down - A correction is down-up-down and an impulse is up-down-up-down-up. Therefore, as a market participant we are wanting to know what we are looking for next in the market action.

Are we next looking for another leg in the same direction, (after a small correction), or are we looking for a market to change directions (a turn).

We are using the soybean daily continuation chart as an example. We were confidant that last July's lows were the end of a down correction. Therefore next, we were looking for at least 5 waves up.

As it turns out, beans marked about 13 waves up - 13 up and down legs collectively into the beginning of February. Next, the beans marked 2 down legs connected by a smaller up leg into March 24th - this was the correction.

March 24th was a big spike down & up rally day after many selling days which moved the price down to between 50% and 62%. Therefore, on March 25th, we were confidant that the correction was over and a new up leg was starting. This is how I arrived at big 1 and big 2, and that big 3 was starting.

We know the trend is up since spring of 2020 and we are looking for another big up leg. All market movement is at least 3 total legs, we are confident that soybeans will give us another big up leg into summertime...and, that up leg just began on March 24th.

Soybeans has completed 1 smaller leg (within big 3) since March 24th, therefore we are looking for at least 2 more up legs connected by a correction leg.

Big 1 was about 4 months in duration, therefore we are looking for this up leg to be 4 months in duration. However, it could be 78% or 62% of 4 months . For example, 78% of 4 is 3.12 months - this would take us to about June 30th or July 4th.

Here is the soybean daily continuation chart which should put a good picture to what's being discussed here. Please spend some time with this.

Because we think May Wheat has begun a new up leg, the 683 support which was eclipsed by 2 or 3 cents today, should attract buyers. It is possible that the selling could continue in wheat - it may only be an up leg within a sideways pattern.

It will need to rally up above 720 and hold that price to know for sure that a big up leg is beginning.

670 held today in May Corn. My bias is for another up leg to occur, so 668-670 needs to hold. If not, corn would experience a little bit longer correction/consolidation happening.

June Crude fell below and closed below the 79.75 support today. There is some chance that the gap gets fill at 75.75. Conversely, we will need a close back above 80 to continue the uptrend.