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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 3/14/23

May Wheat - Steady


May Corn - Steady to 1 Higher


May Beans - 1 Lower


April Crude Oil traded to the bottom of the big sideways range it's been trading in since last November. Today's low of 70.78 is close to the December low near 70. I don't know for sure, but I imagine crude prices will work higher from the 70-71 area.


However, the move up will be bumpy just like it was coming down - using the red lines, there is a lot of in and out of the market opportunity for those who desire. Going back to December, notice how price responds to the lines both in rallies and sell offs. Here is the updated April Crude Oil 4 hour chart.


May Wheat has proven that there's a very high probability the low price is in over the last 3 days of trade. Wheat has marked 3 higher highs since last Thursday and 2 higher lows - this type of action is the best indicator of a trend.


Once the resistance line is cleared at the 704.50 level, 809 to 810 is the next objective above and support is from 682 - 676. See what you think looking at the 2 hour May Wheat chart.


May Corn is also forging a bottom as it trades in a fairly wide ledge between 609 - 620. As mentioned earlier, because of the heavy volume near the low at 622.25, this level will be solid support after corn trades above it. 637 will be the next target higher. I feel like the corn bulls will gun for taking out buy stops tomorrow. Check out today's May Corn chart and see if you agree.


In Elliot wave analysis, first corrective waves can be very deep (more than 78% retrace) after the first up impulse. This is what appears to be happening in May Soybeans. Price almost retraced the entire move up, but found buyers at the 1485 level today and if this higher low holds, confirms that beans have begun another impulse higher.


I expect the next leg up to make a run at between 1555 - 1584, but there will be pullbacks along the way. Support is 1585 and the resistance levels are 1517 and 1532, before the 1555 area. Here's the May Bean 2 hour chart.


Soybean price found buyers directly on the lower up channel line on the daily continuation chart seen here. Here is a zoomed out look at soybeans on the daily.


May Soybean Meal initially breached the uptrend line this morning, but the fund buyers took charge and rallied the price to close above this line - a win for the bulls.


I have removed the Elliot wave counts on the June S&P primarily because the action has turned out to be more sideways overall. However, the bulls were out in full force today, presumably because of higher confidence of an easy money policy.


The S&P was up +66.75, June Nasdaq up +276, DOW up +331. Here is the updated June S&P 8 hour chart with support and resistance lines. If you are able to spend some time, notice how price reacts in and around the red and blue lines.



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