Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 2/6/23
March Wheat - 2 to 3 Higher
March Corn - 1 to 2 Lower
March Beans - Steady to 1 Higher
March Corn has traded in a small range the last 2 sessions from about 671 to 680. Today's range was inside Friday's range and since about January 9th, corn has been consolidating/contracting/building energy, forming an upwards ascending triangle. Ascending triangles are usually bullish and descending triangles bearish.
Therefore, this appears to be a market that is gaining energy for an upside breakout above 689, about 10 cents from today's close. Also today was a Doji-like bar, indicating a build up of energy. The daily chart is a little less busy.
The inverted head & shoulders is not invalidated because of this newer triangle. The triangle just becomes a part of the elongated right shoulder. Here is today's updated and zoomed in daily March Corn chart. The bottom line of the triangle should be support - notice The small triangle with the upwards slant and today and Friday's bars.
The March minus November Soybean inverted spread has been unwinding about 21 cents since the end of January. Therefore, there has been some buying strength in the new crop contract.
Remember, a couple of weeks ago November tested the 2020 uptrend line to the downside where fund buyers showed up big time. New crop beans are trying to test the triangle line it fell down from on January 18th. The short term trend is still up. You will see what I am saying on the Novie daily chart below.
A zoomed in 1 hour March Soybean chart reveals a corrective selloff today that attempted to test a lower trendline, but the buyers stepped up before this could happen. This fact is supportive for prices.
All of these grains are now marking time until Wednesday's crop estimate, and I expect more energy building and back and forth to occur until the report is released. Resistance for March is 1540 and support is 1514. Check out today's March Bean chart, highlighting the sell off and small rebound today.
March Soybean Meal also corrected down today, needing more bullish energy for advancing higher. There was some profit taking and short sellers who came into meal to sell the double top on Friday. Please refer to yesterday's daily meal chart.
March Wheat tested the former lower upward slanted channel line today at about 745.5. I feel like this should function as good support moving forward. In fact, on the 15 minute wheat chart (not shown), a spike low and ledge developed so I don't even think today's low needs re-testing. However, we will have to wait for tonight's trade to know for sure on this. Here is today's March wheat chart.
March Crude Oil found some buyers near the January 5th low of about 72.50 today. Now that we know crude was not ready to rally in response to it's inverted head & shoulders, we have to view it as confined to a range between 70 and 82.50 which is also support and resistance.
The 78 to 79 level will also serve as resistance - red and blue line above. Also notice the old spike high at 79 - bump on the left, bump/correction on the right. Check out the updated 4 hour Crude Oil chart.
Some buyers showed up in March Natural Gas today which allowed the contract to close positive on the day at 2.487, about .140 points below the premature Doji tri-star a few days ago. Today's low was above Friday's low which is also a positive sign.
If follow through buying succeeds in gas tomorrow, then we can probably look for a retracement upwards to begin. I will address the natural gas chart later in the week.