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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 2/2/23

March Wheat - 1 to 2 Higher


March Corn - Steady to 1 Lower


March Beans - 2 to 3 Lower


The bulls had small but important success in March Wheat today. It may seem not very meaningful to the casual observer. On the contrary, little details are very important in charting.


Wheat only closed 2 pennies higher than yesterday, but a look at the chart tells us this is important progress. There are 2 lines at the neckline level, a slightly downsloping blue one and a red one. The blue one is the technical neckline and the red line is a horizontal priceline drawn across the old high and to the right at 760.25 about 2 weeks ago.


Yesterday's close was 1 or 2 ticks (.25 of a cent = 1 tick) above the blue neckline at 758 and today's close was 2 cents higher at 760. Today's close was within 1 or 2 ticks of the red priceline. This is a small victory for the bulls because it's as though March Wheat is climbing a ladder and made it 2 steps higher today.


To these eyes, wheat took care of business yesterday closing above the blue neckline, and today's business was different and another step in the right direction. Yesterday's business should not have to be re-done in the near future in March Wheat because it is already accomplished that particular bit of business.


This is the stairstepping action I've talked about before - stable, methodical - building energy and releasing it in smaller bits at a time. The higher highs and lows are another clue that the bulls have the upper hand.


I am showing you an 8 hour bar chart today so we can see a couple of price targets above. Today's close is the far right bar/candlestick and yesterday's close is 3 bars to the left. Please spend some time looking at these details (where the close is relative to the lines) in today's March Wheat chart.


March Corn had some bullish success by marking a higher low today. Yesterday, the trade shot up 18 cents from the low and today it came back down about 12 cents from the high to form the higher low. Also today, price touched exactly on that red line referred to yesterday - you will see it on the chart. Corn is expressing some of it's energy here with these big swings back and forth. Corn should be winding up for a move higher, above 690.


We will need to see some buying coming in tonight and tomorrow to confirm that the bulls are in control, but I believe this is the more likely scenario. On the 5 minute chart (not shown) March Corn looks to have carved out an intraday bottom - this fact adds some confidence. Notice today's higher low on Corn's updated chart.


On the daily continuation Soymeal chart, today's bar rallied to within one tick (.25 of a cent) of last year's high. It seems to me meal is starting it's climb out of the last year's range. We will know tomorrow whether meal needs a small correction first, or if the bulls are going to hit the sea of buy stops just above. See what you think about March Soybean meal.


March Soybeans had a nice up day of 14 cents in tandem with meal, to close at 1534, just 14 cents from the high of this recent range. Every time the bears take down beans the bulls say thankyou and rally back up.


Today, beans closed above the balance line. Here is the updated March bean chart showing the progressive failure of the head & shoulders. The right shoulder is usually only 50-62% back up from the neckline in reliable head & shoulders formations. This particular retracement in March beans is 94% back towards the head - a far cry from 62%. The top of the would be right shoulder is about 9 cents above today's close.



March Crude Oil hit that lower red line today at 75, almost to the tick, and closed above the blue uptrend line. Crude should not have to make another lower low from here. We will get clarification on this matter tonight and tomorrow.



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