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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 2/1/23

March Wheat - Steady to 1 Lower


March Corn - 1 to 2 Higher


March Beans - 1 Higher


Today was a correction/backfill day in most commodities and stocks. I do not know for sure, but imagine that end of the month/beginning of the month had something to do with it - market participants getting in and out of positions.


After briefly falling back to the left neckline support, March Corn had a nice comeback into positive territory. After being down about 8 cents early corn managed to close slightly green on the day at 681. Support for tomorrow is 677.


As it turned out in corn, the E leg of the correction extended itself down in order to stop out more small traders who couldn't capitalize their positions. Remember, a market has to do what it has to, get where it's going - a zig-zag, not a straight line.


The March Corn selloff was also an opportunity for shorts to capture a few pennies on a daytrade. Here is the 4 hour corn chart showing that left neckline again. Check out the updated March corn chart.


Even though March Wheat closed in the negative today, it displayed the more impressive turnaround with daytime volume on the low being more than twice the other high volume bars on the 5 minute chart.


The bar in question traded about 2300 contracts, where as the rest of the 5 minute bars (including the open & close) traded at 1000 or less.


Remember, when the peak volume bar is not on the open or close, and it is coupled with a dramatic spike down and up (V bottom), it's a good bet that price needs no more marking down. In other words, this low today or within a couple of cents is a solid, important support level.


The buying rebound allowed March Wheat to close above the blue neckline again. This is a positive development. For tomorrow, support for wheat comes in around 750 and resistance is 767, although this resistance is fairly light.


Check out that volume on the V low in March Wheat - each volume and price bar represents only 5 minutes - it happened quickly.




March Beans also marked a higher low today while the fund longs jumped in before price could get to that old high at 1508. Also important for the bean bulls was that the close traded up 9 cents from the low.


The slump in beans gave the head & shoulders crowd (sellers) some hope, but that will probably be short lived. Support in beans is 1508 and resistance is 1545. Here is today's bean chart - make sure and notice the gap left behind from the low to 1508.


After a brief rally early in the session, the March Crude Oil sold off again and flirted with that 75 level support. Remember, even though crude may trade down to 75 or a bit below, it would still be a higher low from the early January low of 72.46. Resistance is at the 79.75 level for tomorrow. Here is the updated oil chart.


The bottoming formation in March Natural Gas is through us a curve ball today. In other words, patterns are never perfect, instead they always try to fool the crowd (bulk of traders) and last a few days as opposed to forming in 1 day. This is how energy is built up.


Because the 3rd Doji of the tri-star was only a couple of ticks above the 2nd Doji-star, the sellers took advantage and brought Nat Gas down today. It sold off 0.182 to 2.50 on very high volume, which may be capitulative in nature - last of the longs getting stopped/forced out. We will have to see what tonight and tomorrow's trade brings as far as fund buying to get a confirmation. Look at today's volume compared to the last 3 days.


The March S&P is continuing to perform well and marked a large up day, today. It almost made it to the next upside target, labeled next target on the chart. However, because the S&P has now marked 5 waves up (3 up legs) since the last correction, it could be time for another correction down. Support is now near the 1st target line below. You will see what I mean on the 2 hour chart below.





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