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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 12/28/22

March Wheat - Steady


March Corn - Steady to 1 Lower


March Beans - 1 Lower


A Very strong close in all the grains today. I am tongue tied! March beans did not pullback from yesterday. March Corn has rallied through all the possible resistance lines. March Wheat closed above the triangle breakout and almost exactly on the line labeled "close above this line important."


This price action overall is indicative of a stable, sure footed up trend. This is a time when the funds are continually adding to their long positions and producers are hoarding physical and not making any sales agreements. These trends are in their early stages. In other words, the next up legs on the weekly corn and bean charts is just getting fired up and the weekly wheat chart will experience bigger backfills after big up legs.


There is not much, if any chart resistance in March Corn and Beans. The March wheat contract will be more volatile - (deeper corrections) as it trends up. Hang on and be patient.


March Soybeans broke out and up from the ascending triangle, closing above 1508 (the top red horizontal line on the March Bean daily - this is breakout today after yesterday's attempt at a breakout. Here is today's chart.


The Soybean continuation chart (aka the daily of the weekly) also broke out to the upside. I am looking to the top left for guidance on this chart. You will see what I mean.


March Corn has now cleared all possible resistance areas on my chart, with the +8.25 cent up day today. Next resistance is the 703 to 710 level. However, the June 1st low of 687 might be a pause area. You will see that corn cleared all the blue lines on the 8 hour chart here.


There is no significant resistance on the corn continuation chart until 731 (light) and 800 (more heavy resistance).


Look at how clean and straight (no bumps) the weekly corn is above 725. The minimum swing measure target of this new leg is 788, from the length of the first leg.



I am intentionally not mentioning closing prices, etc. so that you will see them on the charts.


March Wheat had a strong +11 cent up day today, closing very near it's breakout level. You again will see the same line that is labeled "close above this line" on the updated chart here.


The next resistance on the weekly wheat chart is 904 and 950. These are previous highs on the chart. Please try to locate these price levels on the March Wheat chart above so you can see their similarities.


The February Crude chart did make it down to the 78 (a hair past) level today and found the fund buyers to close above that line by about 90 cents. Check out the updated oil chart.


To summarize the grains - I was not expecting to see this kind of strength until next week, but the markets have their own clock and it is our job to allow it to tick without imposing our silly human expectations. The grains are telling us they're ready.


The March S&P has been lallygagging around between 3900-3800. It has not been able to rally. The double bottom never materialized, and the sellers have been winning the last few trading days.


I believe there is a good chance some fund buyers are waiting to execute just below the 3800 level. I know people say triple bottoms never hold, but to me this one has good structure. It will probably trade between 3775 and 3960. Here is a zoomed in view of the S&P.








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