Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 11/21/22
Dec Wheat - 1 to 2 Lower
Dec Corn - 1 Higher
Jan Beans - Steady to 1 Lower
Dec Wheat is still consolidating above the weekly support line that goes all the way back to 2007. Being a holiday week I don't know how much action we will see in the grains this week. However, I anticipate today's low of 786 to provide good support in Dec Wheat. Take a look at the daily Wheat chart for a larger perspective - today's bar is just a small blip in the bigger scene. The chart goes back to the end last of last January.
See how small the bars are since Oct 10th - this is a low volatility market storing up energy for a move. 1154 is the inverted head & shoulders target.
Dec Corn's strength has been impressive in the face of crude oil's liquidation. The close today of 658.50 (-7.75 on day) is higher than the July 11th high of 658.50 - this swing high is providing long term support. I feel like a broken record because there is not much new information - the most likely scenario is Corn is still going sideways before it goes higher this or next week. Here is Corn's daily chart again so you can see the overall situation. Every bar is 1 full day.
January Soybeans showed the most strength out of the bunch today, closing up +8.00 to 1436.25. The highlight of the 8 hour bean chart is the big triangle that is coming to a head - the walls are closing in on price, so it will most likely continue the uptrend and break out to the upside. The big triangle is the 2 blue lines beginning on June 9th (top) and July 21st (bottom).
The act of constricting price in Jan Beans builds energy up for a sustained move. Think of boiling a pot of water with a lid - if you constrict steam it has more power and eventually it has to escape = trend.
Here is the daily Bean chart going back to the highs of May '21. Feel free to look at the notes - a lot of them are lengths of the previous runs (with Fibonacci ratios) so I can have an idea how high in price we go this season.
WOW Jan Crude Oil update: you don't always know when a trend or move is over with, but sometimes when it's over with, you know. When you look at today's 4 hour volume bar on the crude chart compared to the last several months, you will understand. Today was panic to the nth degree.
Today, price went down to test the Sep 26th low which was the lowest price since the March 7th high of 130. It looks like all the old longs are flushed out of the market - except for extremely strong hands who did not have to liquidate. Also, look at the red bar to the left of the big green one that marked the low. Now look at the small green bar to the right - it marked a slightly higher high than the red bar I just described - this is a sign of strength of the bulls coming back en masse.
Here is a blow up chart of Jan Crude's trading today.