Dec Wheat - 1 Higher
Dec Corn - Steady to 1 Higher
Jan Beans - 4 to 5 Lower
There was strength plus volatility in the grain and oil markets today. I don't know what the news was for sure, but today reminds me of the price action when the Ukraine - Russia war began late last Feb and early March. Remember the huge swings up and down as the rally occurred? Maybe the war is about to escalate?
January Soybeans is forming an inverted head & shoulders on the 1 hour chart as it is trying to break out of the much larger triangle which projects a rally to 1753. The head & shoulders projects a run up to 1505. Therefore it looks like 1505 will be the first smaller leg up - then correct 10-20 cents from there.
Because Jan Beans gave us a hint today with the volatility, I have more confidence the move up will feature larger backfills. Check out the pattern on the 1 hour bean chart,
The fund buyers in Dec Wheat were quite active today causing price to rally up to 843, which is a new high for the move since Nov 8th - the sellers were able to push price down to 827 to close up only +9.25 for the day. That weekly uptrend line at 794 has been able to fend off more bears from coming around.
Remember in charting, the longer time frame charts (monthly, weekly, daily) have the most influence on ultimate price direction than the intraday charts (30 min, 1 hr, 4 hour, etc) - this fact is proving itself in supporting Dec Wheat. In fact, this particular trendline goes all the way back to 2007! Here is the updated Dec Wheat chart.
Again, If we can get a close in Dec Corn above 682 this week, it will pretty well solidify that this down move from Halloween till now was indeed a fakeout. As you will see on the 4 hour chart that today's high almost made it back to the lower channel line. If tomorrow can mark a higher high than today (675), the bulls will be in a frenzy. Check it out.
Dec Crude Oil Update: From yesterday's comments - "tomorrow could see selling between 84-83 where the fund bulls should take over. Then I expect a run back up to 89." As you will see on today's crude chart, price went from a hair over 84 to about
.30 cents from (88.68) 89. I think oil will continue rallying - once it clears the 90 area, look for the 94 level. Here is a blowup of Dec Crude.
From yesterday - "Today's high in the Dec S&P was 4017 which is very close to the upside down head & shoulders target. This market should correct or go sideways for a bit before going higher." The Dec S&P is forming an expanding triangle as part of the correction we are in, marking a higher high today along with a lower low. 4050 was the higher high along with 3960 being the lower low. The correction should terminate somewhere between 3926 to 3870. Please look at the updated zoomed in S&P chart.
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