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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 1/11/23

March Wheat - 1 Lower


March Corn - Steady to 1 Lower


March Beans - Steady to 1 Lower


Tomorrow at 11 AM CST is the moment of truth for the final US production number. The grains should trade in a much bigger range than the last 3-4 days. In general, we should more likely see net gains tomorrow. We have to buckle up and ride it out.


Today is what you want to see after you think a solid spike (V) bottom has occurred in March Wheat. Straight down and straight back up. Yesterday sold off and closed in the lower one third of the price range.


Today, wheat opened a little higher than yesterday's close and rallied up to within 1 tick of yesterday's high, then it closed just 16% off the high price. This is classic wheat bull action. Wheat tends to not mess around as much as corn when it comes to going places. It likes to take the straighter route to price discovery.


To be clear, the usual wheat chart I publish is the continuation chart and March is trading. The stand alone March Wheat contract has some differences. Namely, the August low is higher so you don't see that double and triple inline bottom.


The only point here is that you have to know both charts (continuation & March contract) because the wheat market is responding to both. Today we are looking at a bigger picture of wheat - the daily March contract showing an array of upper price targets. I believe the selling to new lows is over with.


One more argument for wheat to turn bullish is the US Dollar is remaining weak since October with no signs of a rally.


You will note that the double bottom target in wheat is 880, 800-720 = 80 and 800+80=880 which is very close to the first blue trendline price objective.


Here is a reminder of what the 1 hour wheat chart looks like with today's data.



March Corn kind of just marked time again today with a very small, inside daily bar, indicating a building of energy. Tomorrow is guaranteed to have a bigger range - I think net up. Here is a reminder of the bigger picture - the daily corn continuation chart showing the inverted head & shoulders and the 2 breakaway gaps that have never been filled below. You can also see the upper gap target of 730.


What strikes me about the 2 hour March Soybean chart is how it is winding up building energy and moving higher. It broke out to the upside from a small triangle which is drawn on the chart. Yesterday I believed beans had a chance to sell off and test the most recent low at 1465, but the bulls were too strong for that today.


The primary energy in beans is flowing upward even on this intraday chart (zoomed in). Also March beans has marked 2 higher lows since December 20th and 2 higher highs since December 9th. You can see the dates across the bottom of the X-axis.


March Soymeal also had a strong up day today closing up about +6.2 at 474.80.

It was unable to test the new support line again today - too many buyers.



Feb Crude Oil also made some good bullish progress today, trading up +2.29 to close at 77.71, almost exactly on the next resistance line. Tomorrow is a moment of truth - will crude punch up through the line on it's way to the neckline or need a small correction first?


This market is still responding well to the inverted head & shoulders - moving higher. The next upside target at the neckline is about 81 dollars. Check out the updated Crude Oil 4 hour chart. Today trade is marked by the last 6 bars.


Update on the Feb Nat Gas situation - gas made an attempt to sell off and mark new lows today, which it did temporarily. However, the bulls were too strong and price reversed up to close for a net gain on the day. The bulls like that 3.52 level, which I thought they did. Here is a zoomed in natural gas chart showing the last few days.







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