Tech Guy Opening Calls and Grain & Crude Comments 6/9/22
July Wheat - 3 to 4 Higher
July Corn - Steady to 1 Lower
Dec Corn - Steady to 1 Lower
July Soybeans - Steady
From Yesterday: "I am looking for another small leg up in July Corn up to 784-790". Today's high in corn was 782.75, just shy of the lower part of the range. We should see some backfill/consolidation to 760-755 area before another leg higher.
December Corn is lagging quite a bit as old crop supply concerns take a front seat to growing conditions. The July/December spread has widened about 33 cents since June 2, from +34 to +58 cents. The minimum high target for July Corn is an old high (824.5). I think Roger anticipates the high is already in for new crop and it sure could be the case.
July Soybeans broke up out of the 3 and 1/2 month range today, with the breakout point and now support, being 1754-1758 (these figures are for the front month continuation chart). The breakout in July occurred yesterday at about 1730-1733 - Tues high. I would not be surprised to see a good test of this breakout point (1754-1758) before tomorrows report. 1754 is also yesterdays high.
The bean breakout has been a several day process/event. I have tried to give you a play by play to describe all that it takes to get this much energy moving.
Assuming the bulls survive tomorrow's report (all my data says yes), the 1915 area is the next target for July Soybeans, Also June 16-17 is the next time target - should be a swing high - who knows yet if it's the Final high. This date also holds for July Corn swing high.
Here is the daily bean continuation chart showing the breakout and all the up and down days get to this point. For the long beans position trader this range has strengthened the stomach. The smaller triangle consolidation began the day bar directly above the letter e in the words "Bean Daily"- every front month rolls just before first notice day. It will be the July contract until the week after options expire on 6/24.
It is a good sign for the bulls that the smaller triangle formed starting 5/31. Let me explain - When a consolidation forms below an up breakout point it has better odds of continuing up. Notice the last swing high (4/21) - went straight up/straight down.
Our market has completed all the back and forth business already during the last 9-10 bars below the breakout. It does not need any repeating (visit same prices) for now. Also the 2 blue uptrend lines show possible up targets.
July Crude Update: More chance of a down correction to 116-115 before going higher. Crude seems to be running out of buying steam for now. The 110 price quoted yesterday is a low-er trendline. The first ones come in 116-115. I am waiting for the Crude chart to give more clarity before deciding to buy or sell in this area.