Tech Guy Opening Calls and Comments 1/17/23
March Wheat - the close was 748.50, down 3.25 from the settlement. 3 to 4 Higher from the close
March Corn -2-4 Higher
March Beans - Steady to 1 Higher
Today was classic price action for a bull market in the grains. Let me explain. The strong money engineers or manipulates the market to go down overnight so they can buy it lower in the morning. This is really a thing - I learned it studying the stock market but it applies to any potential market.
This action serves to stop out the weaker longs (tight stops) so the money which is more convicted (fund money) fools the small speculators into giving up their long bias, basically getting rid of the competition.
March Corn was the strongest grain participant today, trading all the way up to 686, a few ticks from the neckline within the inverted head & shoulders formation. Let's see how tonight and tomorrow trade, but this could be a pretty big up week. Support lies at 682. Here's today's corn chart.
The March Wheat contract had another outside/higher day with the highest close in 8 trading days! This action is bullish because, like I mentioned above, the early session sells off to clean out the buy stops then reverses upward.
This action is helping to confirm our earlier bias that wheat has made a strong daily low and that it wants to work higher. The next objective is a close above 760 and then a test of 799. Support is 742, about 6 cents down. This is a zoomed in daily March Wheat chart so you can see the details of where the close occurs on a candlestick chart.
March Soybeans closed above the June gap to the left for the first time, on a higher close day. The bulls are in control here, but there is potential resistance at 1583, about 44 cents higher. 1583 is the close of a big continuation chart gap to the left also from late June.
The March/Nov bean spread is screaming higher and I believe the current spread price is higher than the same spread last year at this time. Also, the Soybeans price board has become inverted, indicating that near term demand has become very strong - this market has become very bullish.
Here is a picture of today's bean board. This is what you want to see in a bull market that is cranking up. Follow the prices and net changes down.
Here is the soybean continuation chart showing the potential resistance on the upper left. This area is about where the next red line up is located. Support is now 1528.50, the other gap close level that beans closed above today.
Here is a picture of that Mar/Novie bean spread showing bullish divergence from the March alone contract. This phenomenon (you guessed it) is more evidence supporting the bull market in soybeans.
Here is the March Meal continuation chart showing how today's lows fell directly on the new support line that I have been showing you.