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Tech Guy Comments for 7/27/22

I have a prior engagement tonight, so no opening calls today. However, there are a few tidbits on my mind.


Roger mentioned the strength in soymeal - because more meal than oil is made from the bean, this is a powerful driver for the soybean market. During the last rally into Feb 24, soyoil was leading most of the time, so this time is stronger.


Thi soymeal factor along with other factors tells me there is a good chance of new highs in the Aug, Sep and Nov soybean contracts - again, because the markets are already telling us that this is/will be a stronger rally than in the spring.


Now I am not saying the Sep & Dec corn will make new contract highs, but they certainly could. We will know at some point...and I am not saying this is July and August of 2012 in the corn and soybean market now (probably somewhere in between 2011-2012), but it does have some of the DNA/traits - namely the urgency with which it is getting started - crop conditions/August weather forecast, breakaway gap, etc.


Moreover, the 2012 rally covered a lot of real estate - about 339 cents in the Dec corn contract - so I also don't know yet if the current rally will cover as much price - we simply need to be aware that these markets are very strong. It is though corn and soybeans find themselves in "weather premium debt" - like the balloon payment is suddenly due and they have a a lot of catching up to do regarding price.


Initial upside targets are 680 in Dec Corn and 1475-1540 in Nov Beans - 1475 is possible resistance, but considering the strength here and relation to corn price, the higher price is more of a magnet.


Big picture, The weekly corn and soybean charts had a large correction into July 6th. Therefore we are starting a new uptrend - this is called an impulse leg which follows the corrective leg. This bit of data is certainly an argument for new contract highs - There will be resistance to overcome, so just keep it in the back of your mind. Obviously many factors (threatening weather, etc) would have to continue to unfold for this to occur but the forecasts are leaning that direction.


Also, this rally will take less time than in the spring - more price will be covered per unit time than the spring rally. Here is the Dec 2012 contract - daily chart with it's breakaway gap(s) and midpoint gap as a reminder and possibility that this summer has some similar characteristics as 2012.