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Tech Guy Comments 11/19/23

No opening calls today - family obligation

For March Soybeans I am looking for the top of the ascending triangle at 1508 to hold support. On the 2 hour intraday bean chart you will see an a-b-c correction labeled.

The March/ November Bean spread marked a new high today telling me that demand is driving this uptrend more than South American weather concerns. Also, notice the daily bean continuation chart where you can see the big triangle. Check out the details below.

March Corn has been working on a small a-b-c correction, as well. This is in the context of the larger inverted head & shoulders in which the neckline was tested recently. The new crop/old crop corn spread is similarly inverted indicating the demand story trumps any supply concerns. You will be able to see the old highs on the left side of the chart (red lines) which are providing support and probable buying interest. Here is the updated corn chart.

The new crop Corn chart has been consolidating/building energy since April of last year. It is forming a large, fairly equilateral triangle which has lower highs and higher lows - Dec Corn is coming to a head and it will break out up or down pretty soon. My odds are on the up side. Here is the daily Dec Corn chart.

I will follow up on New crop corn and beans about once per week.

I am still bullish on March wheat despite it not showing much progress this week. It is taking care of it's business the only way it knows - in it's own good time. I see it forming an inverted head & shoulders on the 1 hour chart, marking a succession of higher highs and lows.

You will see what I am talking about on the March Wheat 1 hour chart. Please note the new labels and blue uptrend lines framing the up channel. Despite wheat marking a lower low (733.50) today from yesterday, it stayed above Tuesday morning's low of 728.75.

Let's see if that 728.75 price holds tonight and tomorrow, or if it doesn't, see if it attracts good buying - I think it will. By the way, the H&S target is about 820, 21 cents above the next high to the left. Here is the updated wheat chart.

March Crude Oil made some upward progress today back up to the weekly line around 81.20 without having to sell off to 78. The close was just shy of that red line at 80.80 and about 50 cents above the neckline.

Crude looks to me like it wants to continue higher. Maybe crude's rally action is a harbinger of more buying coming in the grains? We'll see tomorrow. Today's trade includes the last 5 bars from the right.


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