This is good information from a Kansas farmer I follow on agalk.com - marketing section. His name is John McClure. He's very experienced and knowledgeable. These are comments on Kansas and US as a whole from this morning - worth the read :
Drought of 22 approaching 2011, 2012?
Posted 7/24/2022 07:35 (#9763637)
Subject: Drought of 22 approaching 2011, 2012?
Guys have started chopping and baleing corn stalks here on the dryland. We had the debate on whether or not to even plant dryland corn this spring.. but on our farm we dusted it in last.. caught like 5” shortly after but the drought has returned with barely an inch in the past 30 days. July has shown us similar heat to 2012 and 2011 at times but also breaks. We’ve had 10 days over 100 degrees with a couple over 105 and one or 2 at or over 110 depending upon where you are. Kansas planted a smidge over 5 million acres of corn a little over 3 million is dryland. Earlier the I-35 corridor and north east was probably okay. The southwestern.. say south and west of a line from Wichita to Colby third of the states corn has been really stressed. Even some of the irrigated is going to fail for grain. I ran out to Dodge City where whole quarter sections of dryland is toast.. my estimate is 33% brown dead, 33% more will be in 10 days.. maybe a third left which might.. not everything will get chopped or baled.. too many acres.. but last third doubtful if much of it makes over 50 bushels. Add in the surrounding states in the drought monitor.. maybe 2 to 3 million acres more fails. US harvested corn acreage falls below 80 million.. say 78 vs 81 estimated. I realize that due to La Niña where our moisture is shunted up north around and over a high that areas are looking fine to good.. but cross that imaginary line and it tails off bad like 2011. Our theory is that prices went too high.. now breaking too low.. then finding the middle.. rallies into Harvest.
If we trim 2 or 3 million failed low yield fringe acres.. the high yield core gooses the national average yield.. 178.. or more?? We still just barely push the ball over the 14 billion bu goal line. However consider 3 to 5 million sorghum acres that’s also gonna be pretty dearthly and the feed grains situation in the southwestern fringe is gonna be smoking tight. baled failed corn stalks coupled with ddgs might soften it but getting conflicting signals on the outlook.. snodgrass is giving us hope for a week of cooler with some chances of moisture.. great 0.25”maybe.. but it’s not going to recharge anything for sowing this falls HRW Wheat acreage. acreage.. https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/j098zb09z/0z70b374s/w9506686w/acrg0622.pdf so the WASDE outlook snugs up from 14.5 billion to 14.0 ish and carryout falls.. moving target as prices rise.. initially to 1 billion carryout but price rising trims demand to a 1.25 billion carryout.