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Soybean Production, Trades and Bans, Inflation, Export Sales, Markets & Rain Days Update 03/12/2022

Russian and Ukrainian Foreign Ministers met in Turkey yesterday. It was a waste of jet fuel and time.


CONAB (Brazil’s USDA) lowered their soybean production estimate from 125.471 million mt to 122.77 million (USDA at 127 million), but kept soybean exports steady at 80.2 million mt.

The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered their Argentine bean estimate a half million to 40.0 million mt (USDA at 43 million).

Corn basis at the Gulf was sharply higher for Mar/Apr/May delivery and bean basis was slightly firmer yesterday.


On the price break, Algeria reportedly purchased 600-700,000 mts of wheat and Iran purchased nearly 240,000 mts of wheat.

Russia suspended grain exports to Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) thru August 31. Wheat, meslin (wheat and rye sown together for bread flour), rye, barley and corn off limits. EEU countries include Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan.

Russia’s trade minister suspended Russian fertilizer exports to “unfriendly” nations.

Egypt placed a ban on all wheat and flour exports.

John Deere suspended shipments to Russia yesterday.


The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was reported yesterday to be 7.9%. In 1979, the CPI was up 13.9% and it was ugly.

In January 2020, there were $4.02 trillion in circulation in the USA.

By November 2021, that number had spiked to $20.35 trillion. Since January 2020, the Federal Reserve has printed nearly 80% of all US dollars in existence. And that, Folks, is why inflation is 7.9% and rising.

Even more scary is the Fed printed that money and then “loaned it” to the US government to put into circulation… Guess who pays the interest on the money? Guess who is obligated to pay the principal on that money? Wouldn't it be nice if we could print money, loan it and get it back plus interest? And that, Ladies and Gentlemen, is why President Andrew Jackson destroyed the US Bank 190 years ago. It is also why a liberal president (Wilson) and Congress created an independent company to control the currency of the United States. That independent company is called the Federal Reserve.

The Weekly Export Sales report yesterday morning showed over 2 million mt of corn and beans were booked for export last week. It has probably happened before, but no one remembers when or if it ever happened before.


Export Sales Update


Market Data

This morning:

Crude oil is at $108.53, up 2.51

The dollar index is at 98.78, up 0.27

July palm oil is at 5,975 MYR, down 193. The contract high was made March, 9th at 6,531 MYR. Palm oil owns 36% and soybean oil owns 28% world market share.

December cotton is at $101.80, up $0.36 per cwt. The contract high was made February, 10th at $106.36 per cwt. Cotton competes with soybeans and corn for acres.

July natural gas is at $4.819, up 0.040. The contract high was made March, 7th at $5.270. Natural gas is the primary cost to manufacture nitrogen fertilizer.

July ULSD is at $3.1203 per gallon, up 0.0799. The contract high was made March, 9that $3.7675. ULSD stands for Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.


Rain Days Update

Yesterday, in the dry areas of South America: Santa Maria high temperature 74°F with 0.1 inches rain. Cordoba high temperature 77°F with 0.1 inches rain. Salto high temperature 81°F with 0 inches rain. Total rainfall and temperatures expected in the next ten days: Santa Maria 1.07 inches, 73 to 87°F. Cordoba 0.08 inches, 70 to 88°F. Salto 0.11 inches, 72 to 88°F.

The Western Corn Belt has 1 less rain days in the 10 day forecast than yesterday and the Eastern Corn Belt has 3 more rain days than yesterday.


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