Seasonal Trend & Seasonal Charts

Wright Team
Apr 5, 2021
2 min read

Updated: Nov 7

Published in 2021, updated in 2025

Two of the four factors that we use to determine whether one should price the futures is the seasonal trend and profitability of the current price.

If the seasonal trend is down, that is a sell indicator; if the seasonal trend is up, don’t sell signal.

If the current price is profitable, that is a sell signal; if not profitable, don’t sell signal.

If you had priced a substantial percentage of your corn the third week in June every year if the price was profitable, priced your soybeans the second week in July if the price was profitable and your wheat the early part of January if the price was profitable and, ignored everything else for the past 30 years, you would be one of the largest land owners in your community today. For you young guys, profitable prices at the seasonal price peak will make you a lot of money in the coming decades, even you ignore everything else, which is very hard to do!

Think about it: in 2020, corn and beans were not profitable in June and July, so no sale. Later, $5 corn and $14 beans. Wheat was profitable in Jan 2020 with the high on 22 January: sold!

In 2019, December corn peaked at $4.73 on 17 June; price was profitable at the seasonal top, so you sell. November beans were in the $9.20 to $9.30 range the second week of July 2019… Maybe profitable, maybe not. After trading down to $8.51 in August, November beans traded above $9.40 in October.

2025 Update

Take a look at the 2025 seasonal charts for corn, soybeans, wheat and diesel (heating oil) futures.

Throw those 40 year charts away. We now use 5 and 15 year charts updated every year in January. Those old charts show the high for corn is usually the third week in June and early July for soybeans.

25 years ago, Brazil was a net importer of corn. In 2024, Brazil was the world's leading corn exporter.

31 years ago, Ukraine and Russia (Soviet Union) were net importers of corn and wheat.

In 1995, Ukraine exported corn and wheat for the first time since 1914. Russia did the same in 1997. Now, Ukraine is the world's 4th leading corn exporter, Russia is the world's leading wheat exporter and 9th largest corn exporter.

Three of the last four years, December corn futures made the high on 7, 13, and 16 May. The exception to May high was 2023 when the high was made on 21 June. In recent years, the high for old and new crop beans has been the second week in June.

Why has the high for corn generally switched from the third week in June to Mid May? The dry season starts in Brazil usually the first week in May where they grow the safrinha corn, which is their exportable crop and 75% of Brazil's total corn production. Their crop is made by that time and is getting ready for exports.