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Russia-Ukraine, Basic Factors Explanation, USDA Forum, Market Switch & Rain Days on 02/22/2022

The Biden Admin giving itself some wiggle room on the Ukraine incursion by Russia versus invasion definition: “…the Russian troops moving into Donbas would not itself be a new step. Russia has had forces in the Donbas region for the past eight years”. Senior admin official briefed reporters late last evening.


Thursday and Friday is the USDA's Annual Outlook Forum for 2022. This is the USDA's biggest dog and pony show of the year. You see the agenda here: https://www.usda.gov/oce/ag-outlook-forum


For the past two years, we have made weekly sell or don't recommendations based up four factors:

  • Seasonal Trend

  • Fundamental outlook

  • Technical Outlook

  • Profitability

The tie breaker is profitability.

For the most part, prior to the 2020 crop year, we had used targets primarily based upon fundamentals, seasonal trend and profitability.

Here is why we changed:

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