Market Commentary for 9/24/21
Corn The corn market wasn’t very exciting this week as the range in closing prices was only 12 cents. This was the smallest one-week trading range since late July. Harvest is progressing rapidly with wildly variable yield reports due to disease pressure in parts of the country. The northwest belt’s yields are coming in as predicted with the southern half of the belt having really good yield reports. With what I have seen so far, the current USDA yield estimate seems reasonable. In the last 16 years, the final yield number in January compared to the September estimates were split evenly being either higher or lower. While basis values are pulling back in areas where harvest has started, it is still higher than normal for this time of year. Given the large basis market inverse over the last 2 months, this isn’t surprising and validates that most commercial storage and end user facilities were empty as harvest began. This should mean a nice basis bump or futures rally once harvest is complete. Beans This week beans traded to their lowest level since mid-June but managed to trade off those lows by the close on Friday afternoon. At this point, export sales pace will need to increase to drive futures higher than $13. However, it seems likely harvest could keep prices range-bound between $12.50 to $13 for another few weeks. Even as harvest has started in the western belt, the bean basis there has remained incredibly strong for this time of year. This is likely due to ocean freight rates out of the Pacific northwest to Asia being a better value than through the Gulf. If these ocean freight rates continue through winter, western states may see higher than normal basis levels after harvest.
Jon Scheve Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC
9358 Oak Ave Waconia, MN 55387 email@example.com