Jon Scheve with weekly market commentary made on February, 18, 2022
There are many factors that could impact corn prices moving forward.
Reasons To Be Bullish Corn:
Argentina crop conditions continue to deteriorate, and early estimates indicate yields could be 20% below normal
A decrease in Argentina production could increase US exports and tighten carryout
New crop bean values in the US and high fertilizer costs may buy some bean acres away from corn this spring
Rumors of China buying more US corn
Funds continue to buy corn and other commodities as an inflation hedge
US corn remains competitive on the world market
Reasons To Be Bearish Corn:
Brazil is forecasted to grow more corn this year than last year and the planting pace is well ahead of normal. Early planted corn tends to miss dry weather associated with the later part of the growing season in that country
Argentina’s corn production last year was also predicted to be 20% down from normal, but ended up being down significantly less than that prediction
US export pace is not meeting current USDA estimates
Rumors of Chinese corn purchases have not shown up in the cash markets as actual sales yet
Total Chinese corn imports are expected to decrease nearly 30% this year compared to the record levels last year
Some in the trade are suggesting that feed demand in this country will not meet current USDA estimates
Other Factors That Could Affect the Corn Market:
The Russia/Ukraine situation is still unresolved, and the outcome is unclear
April and May weather in Brazil could end up affecting US crop demand in late summer
US weather in June and July will have a big effect on price direction later this summer
Bottomline: With so many unknown factors that could change price direction, continued volatility should be expected. Market Action: On February 10th, an open order to sell March corn futures at $6.50 I had in place was hit. The order was on 10% of my 2021 production and moves me to 70% sold with futures on my old crop corn. Also on February 10th, an open order to sell December corn futures at $5.90 I had in place was hit. The order was my first 10% sale of my 2022 expected corn production.
Jon Scheve Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC
9358 Oak Ave Waconia, MN 55387 jon@superiorfeed.com