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Indian Crop, Put Options, Broilers & Ethanol, Markets & Rain Days Update 5/5/22


After Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, announced the Fed was raising the interest rate a half percent (50 basis points) yesterday after, he later added the Fed was not "actively considering" a 75 basis-point rate hike next month or any month. The market was expecting a 75 basis point increase in May and June. Powell's comment sent the dollar lower, where it stayed the rest of the day and started that way in early Asia trading. At midnight, the dollar index was 102.51, down 66 points from last week's settlement. The sharply weaker dollar supported commodities, especially crude oil as did the news that the EU will continue to try to wean itself from Russian crude oil.

Russia’s ruble is trading at 68 rubles to the US dollar, the strongest exchange dollar for ruble since March of 2020. Before ruble was tied to a gold standard late March it took more than 120 rubles to buy a US dollar. Right there is the difference between a currency truly tied to a standard, in the case of the ruble, gold, and a currency whose value is determined by how many are printed. It is estimated that 40 to 60% of all the US dollars in circulation today were printed within the past two years.


India has harvested five consecutive record large wheat crops and it was looking like this year’s crop would be the 6th. Then hot weather hit in mid-March, two weeks after their three month long harvest began.

In early April, India’s government predicted this year’s crop would be 111.3 million mt. India was telling the world they had plenty of wheat to cover the shortage from Ukraine, but the extreme heat persisted into mid-April and private analysts began to reduce the size of the crop.

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