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Highlights, Markets & Rain Days Update 5/25/22

Highlights


Ag futures markets will be closed from Friday afternoon until regular opening at 7:00 p.m. CST on Monday.


The funds are net long 3.7 billion bushels of corn. They are letting this corn market go down as far as technical and panic selling wants to take it and then the funds will buy corn futures by the ship load.


China announced it has approved permits to import corn from Brazil. While some analysts consider that a bearish fundamental factor, it is not for two reasons:

  1. China needs a lot of corn. Ukraine is out of the export picture and US internal transportation is jammed with corn & beans.

  2. Brazil has precious little corn to export after a disastrous corn crop last year and this year’s crop is not doing too great. It is probably much worse than the market has priced in. Just look at the predicted rain days we sent you the past month.


Corn futures will test the contract highs and quite possibly make new highs. It will be early July before the corn market breaks hard and stays down. There are too many unknowns about the 2022 crop here in the US as well as Brazil and Ukraine for corn to go down and stay down the rest of the year in May or June.


After the White House said at mid-day yesterday the Biden Administration is being pressured to do away with the ethanol mandate, suddenly, the market’s estimate of Ukraine’s 2022 corn production jumped 7 million mt to 25.2 million mt (USDA is already at 25.26 million mt).


Soybeans absolutely will make new highs.

 

Some members of the EU proposed that NATO navy vessels break the Russian Naval Blockade of Ukraine’s ports. That would be war.


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