Highlights, Export Inspections, Markets & Rain Days Update 6/1/22

Highlights

Officials of Russia and Turkey will meet on June 8th to discuss how to get Ukraine’s grain into the world marketplace. That appears to be the main reason why CBOT suffered such heavy losses Tuesday. Rain on France’s dry wheat fields was a major negative influence also.

July soybeans made a new contract high Monday evening and closed the day lower than the previous day’s low. That is the definition of a “key reversal”, which is a technical indicator of a price trend change. The trend change could be from up to sideways rather than down. Us fundamentalists think the worst is that soybeans will trade sideways instead of up, but the S&D looks very, very bullish; key reversals are not, like everything in this business, 100%. We highly recommend no soybeans sales due to fear the price all downhill from.

Crude oil shot higher yesterday because the EU agreed on a partial ban on Russian crude oil imports. While crude was in the $120 per barrel range yesterday afternoon, the rumor that OPEC is considering exempting Russia from OPEC production quotas, which would give Russia a blank check to produce all the crude they need to sustain the war.

Reports that China will ease COVID lockdown restrictions also supported higher oil prices as crude oil demand would increase as China’s people get back to work.

The USDA Weekly Crop Progress Report was issued Tuesday afternoon. Corn planting was 1% ahead of the market's expectations, beans 1% less than expected, and spring wheat plantings are 6% above the market expectations. The numbers:

Export Inspections Update

Market Data

This morning:

Crude oil is at $116.74, up $2.07

The dollar index is at 101.98, up 0.23

July palm oil is at 6,531 MYR, down 33. The contract high was made April, 29th at 7,229 MYR. Palm oil owns 36% and soybean oil owns 28% world market share.

December cotton is at $121.28, down $1.17 per cwt. The contract high was made May, 17th at $133.79 per cwt. Cotton competes with soybeans and corn for acres.

July natural gas is at $8.319, up 0.174. The contract high was made May, 26th at $9.447. Natural gas is the primary cost to manufacture nitrogen fertilizer.

July ULSD is at $3.9848 per gallon, up 0.0498. The contract high was made yesterday at $4.1647. ULSD stands for Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.

Rain Days Update

The Western Corn Belt has 1 more rain days in the 10 day forecast than yesterday and the Eastern Corn Belt has 4 more rain daysthan yesterday.

The 6 to 10 day forecast updated every day at: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/