Wright TeamGlobal Grains, Markets & Rain Days Update 03/16/2022
Yesterday’s midday CBOT rally was fueled in large part because Putin dashed the talk of truce in the war when he said, “Kyiv is not serious to a find mutually acceptable solution”.
NOPA soybean crush for February 2022 was slightly more than the market expected:
165.057 million bushels, 6.4% more than February a year ago.
Soyoil stocks at 2.059 billion pounds, most since April 2020; trade expected 1.985 billion.
Gulf basis for corn was 3-4 cents weaker for March and 3 cents weaker for April and May. Soybean basis was steady for the most part.
Canadian Pacific workers have authorized a strike that could have begun today, but their union has yet to provide the 72-hour notice necessary before walking out.
Argentina’s corn harvest is a month early, but 9% complete with disappointing yields.
The market expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates today, perhaps as much as a half a percent (50 basis points as the market calls a have percent). The market has supposedly priced in a 25 basis point increase. The February Consumer Price Index (CPI) has consumer prices 7.9% higher than February 2021.
Ukraine’s winter wheat losses are thought to be about 28% due to the war and spring planted crop acreage down 40%, or 1.161 million acres (4.7 million hectares).
The number of container ships waiting to unload at the port Qingdao, China continues to grow as China doubles down on its COVID Zero policy, adding more delays to a strained global supply chain. For the past year, it was almost impossible to get ocean freight containers and now it is closer to impossible.
Brazil’s soybean meal cash market has notched another record high. Meal shortage due to a poor crop and a lack of Argentina meal in the export market has driven Brazil soybean meal to $60 over CBOT! Domestic crush margins are out of sight.
Fertilizer News Printed 15 March 2022 by www.freshfruitportal.com
Upheaval from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its impact on fertilizer prices continues to grow, with prices growing day by day across the globe. Meanwhile the USDA has increased its interest in the mechanics of the industry and announced a fund for U.S. fertilizer initiatives.
According to Bloomberg News, prices of fertilizers and their inputs have shown a rapid increase. The report said that Fertilizer prices continue to surge as supply upheaval from Russia leaves governments struggling to secure vital crop nutrients, adding to concerns that record global food inflation will accelerate.
The Green Markets North American Fertilizer Index jumped 16% Friday, March 11 to a new high. The same day, a widely used nutrient, urea, also jumped 22% in New Orleans, and in Brazil, whose agricultural and fertilizer industry depended on Russian imports of Potash, the price for the mineral increased 34%. Russia is the second largest exporter of Potash, which is a critical mineral for the production of fertilizers.
The situation has nations dependent on Russian imports to scramble for new sources or call for adjustments. The report said that Brazil will propose excluding crop nutrients from sanctions imposed on Russia during an upcoming meeting at the United Nations Food and Organization this week.
Meanwhile, back on the farm in America, there is a lot of very dry soil. Note the chart:
Market Data
This morning:
Crude oil is at $98.19, up $1.75
The dollar index is at 98.94, down 0.16
July palm oil is at 5,770 MYR, up 136. The contract high was made March, 9th at 6,531 MYR. Palm oil owns 36% and soybean oil owns 28% world market share.
December cotton is at $102.24, up $0.49 per cwt. The contract high was made February, 10th at $106.36 per cwt. Cotton competes with soybeans and corn for acres.
July natural gas is at $4.877, up 0.150. The contract high was made March, 7th at $5.270. Natural gas is the primary cost to manufacture nitrogen fertilizer.
July ULSD is at $2.9200 per gallon, up 0.0701. The contract high was made March, 9th at $3.7675. ULSD stands for Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.
Rain Days Update
Yesterday, in the dry areas of South America: Santa Maria high temperature 85°F with 0 inches rain. Cordoba high temperature 98°F with 0 inches rain. Salto high temperature 95°F with 0 inches rain. Total rainfall and temperatures expected in the next ten days: Santa Maria 1.05 inches, 72 to 92°F. Cordoba 0.72 inches, 69 to 90°F. Salto 2.69 inches, 71 to 88°F.
The Western Corn Belt has 4 more rain days in the 10 day forecast than yesterday and the Eastern Corn Belt has 2 less rain days than yesterday.
Explanation of Rain Days
Every day, every place in the world has a ten day weather forecast issued many weather services.
By a "place", we mean a Findlay, Ohio; Arcadia, Minnesota; Atlantic, Iowa; Fullerton, Nebraska; Cordoba, Argentina; Craig, Colorado, Saratov, Russia and ten million localities we have never heard of.
The ten day forecast predicts the high and low temperature for each day as well as whether or not rain is predicted for each of the ten days, likewise cloudy, partly cloudy, sunny, etc.
We look at the ten-day forecast and if we see rain is predicted for 4 of the next 10 days, we record a "4" for that location on the chart for the today. It does not matter whether it is one-hundredth of an inch or 5 inches. We realize about half the days expected to receive rain never get rain that day, but we must be consistent in what we report each day and every day because rain makes grain a few key weeks of the growing season. Of course, we scan the temperatures and the amounts of rain just to see if anything is getting way out of the norm.